Rich PillockLottery odds against everyday odds: what is more likely?
One line on the UK's Lotto has a 1 in 22,528,738 chance of the jackpot on a draw night, by the operator's own rules. That is longer odds than calling 24 coin tosses in a row, and about 18 times less likely than the US weather service's estimate of being struck by lightning in a year.
Tool: Lottery Odds Calculator: Any Draw, Working Shown
What are the odds of winning the lottery?
The jackpot odds of four big draws, worked out from each game's own rules. The sum is the number of different ways the balls can fall. One line is one of them.
| Game | Where | The rules | Ways the balls can fall | Jackpot odds for one line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lotto | United Kingdom | 6 numbers from 59, 2 rounds a night | 45,057,474 | 1 in 22,528,738 |
| EuroMillions | several European countries | 5 numbers from 50, plus 2 from 12 | 139,838,160 | 1 in 139,838,160 |
| Powerball | United States | 5 numbers from 69, plus 1 from 26 | 292,201,338 | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| Mega Millions | United States | 5 numbers from 70, plus 1 from 24 | 290,472,336 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
The UK game changed in June 2026, so the figure most pages still quote is out of date. The operator's rules, as published on 5 October 2026, say: “In each Lotto Draw, there are two rounds (each referred to as a “Round”). Six Main Numbers plus a Bonus Number will be drawn in Round one and six Main Numbers plus a Bonus Number will be drawn in Round two.” One line is entered into both rounds, so it gets two goes at the same 45,057,474 possible results, and the rules give the jackpot odds as 1 in 22,528,738: half the old figure, near enough. With a single set they were 1 in 45,057,474.
Source: each game's own rules page (Lotto, EuroMillions, Powerball, Mega Millions) and the US National Weather Service. Period: rules as published on 5 October 2026. Last updated: . Each figure was worked out by code and then matched against the figure printed on a page fetched the same day.
I never won it. I had fourteen million pounds anyway, and I can show you exactly how it leaves.
How do lottery odds compare with everyday things?
Odds this long are hard to picture, so here they are beside things that can be counted. Two rows are official counts, linked. The rest is arithmetic, with the sum shown. Each step to the right on the chart is a hundred times less likely.
- Lottery jackpots
- Other things
| Event | Odds | Where the figure comes from | Against the UK Lotto jackpot |
|---|---|---|---|
| A person in England, picked at random, being aged 100 or over | 1 in 4,167 | Office for National Statistics, official estimate | 5,410 times likelier |
| Being struck by lightning in a year (United States) | 1 in 1,222,000 | US National Weather Service, official estimate | 18.4 times likelier |
| Calling 24 coin tosses in a row | 1 in 16,777,216 | arithmetic: 2 multiplied by itself 24 times | 1.3 times likelier |
| UK Lotto jackpot, one line | 1 in 22,528,738 | the game's rules | the same |
| Rolling ten dice, all sixes | 1 in 60,466,176 | arithmetic: 6 multiplied by itself ten times | 2.7 times less likely |
| EuroMillions jackpot, one line | 1 in 139,838,160 | the game's rules | 6.2 times less likely |
| Mega Millions jackpot, one line | 1 in 290,472,336 | the game's rules | 12.9 times less likely |
| Powerball jackpot, one line | 1 in 292,201,338 | the game's rules | 13 times less likely |
| Naming the top five cards of a shuffled pack, in order | 1 in 311,875,200 | arithmetic: 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 | 13.8 times less likely |
The lightning figure is the US National Weather Service's estimate for a person in the United States in a given year, from its averages for 2009 to 2018. The age figure is the Office for National Statistics' estimate of 24 people aged 100 or over in every 100,000 in England in 2023. The rest is counting: a coin has two sides, a die has six, and a pack has 52 cards. I left out every comparison I could not tie to an official count or a sum.
Source: each game's own rules page (Lotto, EuroMillions, Powerball, Mega Millions) and the US National Weather Service; Office for National Statistics, Estimates of the very old, including centenarians. Period: lightning: United States, 2009 to 2018 averages; age: England, 2023; everything else is arithmetic. Last updated: .
So the UK jackpot sits between 24 coin tosses in a row and ten dice all landing on six. I once called three tosses in a row and told everyone in the pub I had a gift.
How long would one line a week take?
Here is the sum I did on the back of a betting slip, and it is only a sum. At one line a week there are 52 lines a year. The UK odds divided by 52 comes to about 433,245 years between jackpots, on average.
That long. I've been between ventures for seven years. I can wait.
The waiting sum
Does a second ticket help?
As arithmetic: two different lines in the same draw have two chances where one line had one. For the UK game that moves the odds from 1 in 22,528,738 to about 1 in 11,264,369. The chance has doubled, from very nearly nothing to very nearly nothing. I bought two once. I felt I'd done my homework.
Does playing the same numbers every week improve the odds?
The arithmetic says it makes no difference either way. Every draw starts again from nothing. The balls don't know what came out last week, and they don't know whose birthday it is. The line 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 has exactly the same chance as any other six numbers, which nobody believes and everybody can check.
My own system was birthdays. I only know the one.
What are the odds of winning the lottery twice?
For one line in each of two named UK draw nights, the odds multiply: about 1 in 508 trillion. It has happened to people, because millions of lines are played in thousands of draws. It has not happened to me the first time yet.
The tool that goes with this
ToolLottery Odds Calculator: Any Draw, Working ShownEnter how many numbers are picked and from how many. See the odds of matching them all.Questions people ask
What are the odds of winning the UK lottery?
The Lotto jackpot is 1 in 22,528,738 for one line on a draw night, now that two sets of numbers are drawn. Before June 2026 it was 1 in 45,057,474.
What are the odds of winning EuroMillions?
1 in 139,838,160 for one line: 5 numbers from 50 and 2 from 12.
What are the odds of winning Powerball?
1 in 292,201,338 for one line. Mega Millions is 1 in 290,472,336.
Is it more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery?
On the US figures, yes. The US National Weather Service puts being struck in a given year at 1 in 1,222,000, which is about 18 times likelier than one UK Lotto line winning the jackpot.
Do the same numbers every week have a better chance?
No. Every draw is independent, so any six numbers have the same chance each time.
Sources
- Lotto: the game's own rules: how many numbers are drawn, and the printed jackpot odds
- EuroMillions: the game's own rules: how many numbers are drawn, and the printed jackpot odds
- Powerball: the game's own rules: how many numbers are drawn, and the printed jackpot odds
- Mega Millions: the game's own rules: how many numbers are drawn, and the printed jackpot odds
- US National Weather Service: odds of becoming a lightning victim: the lightning row
- Office for National Statistics: Estimates of the very old, including centenarians: the aged-100 row
- lottery.co.uk: Lotto odds: an independent account of the move to two rounds a night, with the old and new odds
- Wikipedia: National Lottery (United Kingdom), the version read: a second independent account of the June 2026 change